BUT, we’re really early in the industry today. So, when I see a piece of research claiming that Amazon will “win the eBook war” because they have 90% of eBook market share today it makes me laugh. To me it’s the equivalent of saying that Napster would win the digital music war because 90% of music downloads were done with Napster over 10 years ago. Or that Yahoo! would win the search war, or that Aol would win… whatever it was Aol was trying to do.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Amazon has a great chance at really killing it in the eBook industry, I would never bet against Jeff Bezos. Problem is I would never bet against Apple and Steve Jobs and I would never bet against Google and Eric, Sergey and Larry either. I think all of these companies have a chance to really redefine how books are read digitally.

Lot’s of rumours about an Apple Tablet machine have been circulating with lots of people talking about how they could launch an iTunes for books, like they’ve extended iTunes into movies. This could be pretty compelling. And if Google partners with Sony, Barnes & Noble and others to have a Book finder type tool, that could also be pretty powerful.

I have no idea what will happen with eBooks in the next couple of years and I really doubt that anyone else can truly predict this either.

A couple of friends commented on her post, on Facebook and on her blog. My favourite comment was on facebook from our friend Rahim, who said:

“When babybee is in your position, there will be no books. There will be a cloud and there will be an access device. Some of which you will have to pay for, a lot of which will be free. Is the business model of the past suitable for digital? No. Is the business model being formulated at present going to work in the future? Probably not. Do people read as they do now as they did in the past? No. They consume their time differently. But books, in some form will remain, information will remain and time will remain. The book is dead. Long live the book..”

I loved this comment. But I disagree, slightly.

The thing is it’s hard to be social, tactile and share an electronic experience with an ebook, regardless the format. We’ve bought books for friends and their kids to share that have “touch experiences”. I’ve enjoyed reading with the kids of my family and my friends, and I can’t wait to open up a book with my own kids and read, and ask questions and share their experiences while discovering books.

The social experience of books with children is totally different from the social experience with music and film. Which is why I can’t see the book totally disappearing.

Don’t get me wrong, I think people will use ebooks, especially on vacations, especially for text books, and business books. And I don’t buy the serendipity argument, well get discovery through different channels (like Amazon book lists, people who bought this book also bought suggestions and things like facebook applications). More and more books will be read and discovered electronically, and this isn’t a bad thing, in fact – at least from an environmental perspective – it’s probably a pretty good thing.

Electronic books will just mean we’re able to read more, we’re not limited to what we can carry, and if things go the free route, what we can afford. But as long as we read and have shared experiences with our kids about books, our kids will continue to have positive thoughts and feelings about books. So while we embrace technology and new business models regarding books, don’t write off the book just yet.

One of the thoughts I had was around high prices. Calacanis was ranting about the Kindle DX’s price. He was deploring the fact that at $500, according to Jason they had priced it totally wrong and they should be pricing it at 20 bucks a month with subscriptions and audio books. No I don’t know about you but I would take Bezo’s strategy over Calcanis’ strategy on this one. But Jason did have a point, high pricing can be off putting. But I don’t think Amazon cares, in fact I think Amazon has made a strategic move in setting the price so high.

Think about it, the iPod and iPhone both had really high prices when they kicked off. Apple maximised margins while at the same time getting key early adopters to test out it’s service. The then used the data from usage to figure out how to develop the product. Sure Apple and Amazon could have priced their products significantly higher, but they might not have been able to meet the increased demand. By pricing it high and producing less they maximise the margins. It’s an exact science but one that can be executed well if you have the smarts like Amazon and Apple.

After a while, when you’ve got the kinks out and when you’re ready for mass production and mass market adoption then lower the price, people think they’re getting a deal, and you’ve got a better product.

At a time when there’s a huge debate on making businesses from giving stuff away free, it’s nice to see some tech companies making healthy margins and charging for premium high value goods.

With music it’s difficult to experience a concert digitally; it’s an experience, and a long experience at that. Listening to songs works, but I can’t see digital concerts replacing the real thing. With reading I think it’s the same. Articles are the singles of literature, reading online works, short bursts good experience. Books are like a concert, longer sustained experience where digital isn’t as good as the real thing.

I know I’ve blogged about digital reading before and I’ve strongly felt the Kindle wouldn’t really take off, despite strong sales data, I’m happy that I’ve found myself an analogy that makes me feel better about my instincts on the medium.

“Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet–which there isn’t–the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople”.

That really got me thinking about salespeople. Could there be a more unauthentic role in capitalism then that of the traditional salesperson? I get shivers just when I hear the word.

But the internet is changing the sales perspective. No longer is it a person who goes around knocking on doors or cold-calling people. Everyone is becoming a salesperson.

I think in part it goes back to Umair’s point about interaction; everyone can interact with a product at a minimal cost. And then if you add the fact that sharing information has become super cheap and easy too, well then everyone becomes a potential salesperson.

By talking about NCAA basketball on my status on Facebook, by adding a bookshelf widget, by writing about 37signals on my blog, by adding feedback on a book on Amazon, by… you get the point. I’m a salesperson and so too is everyone else on the web. So if everyone is a salesperson 2.0 then no one needs to be a traditional salesperson and a salesperson is no longer needed. Finally, no more shivers.

• They said the same thing about digital music, that people wouldn’t want to listen to music electronically or store their files, that the album, 8 track, tape, cd would never succumb to the mp3. Difference is people like to announce the books their reading to the world. Reading Harry Potter is a badge of honour. Reading Owen Meany is inviting me to comment, “what a great book, love that story”. Also reading a book is – usually – a one off affair. You read, you put it on the book shelf or you pass it on. Where as a CD is a repeat experience. I know some people read the same book many times, but it’s far less likely to happen then listening to the same album. Also, the medium for music was crying for innovation, hence we went from the album to the 8 track to the tape to the cd.
• Being able to carry a number of different titles on the go is better then having to lug all your books with you. I think this is a pretty good argument. But, I can’t remember the last time I thought to myself wish I had another book right this instant. If I finish a book, I like to discuss it with someone, or try and think about it a bit. I don’t feel this pain, but I’d welcome hearing from people who do.
• Its better environmentally. This one I can give you. But if the kindle comes out with a number of different models, and people dump their old kindles I think the environmental factors might be a wash.

I still don’t like it. Still can’t see it growing the ebook market. And I still can’t see anyone spending $400 to pick up an ebook reader.

To begin with there’s nothing really wrong with the classic book reading experience, sure carrying multiple titles with you might be attractive, but how often have you thought “wish I had another book with me”. Finishing a book and not having an alternative might in fact be a good thing as it gives you some time to reflect and meditate on the book.

And sure there are environmental concerns to buying lots of books, but if you buy books from used book stores and give books to used books stores then the environmental impact has to be minimal when compared to, oh I don’t know, cars and airplanes perhaps!?

I also found it really weird that Amazon decided to go into this market (as a manufacturer), they don’t have the experience or the knowledge to manufacture customer goods. And if Apple releases some ebook software for the iPod or the iPhone, heck when the SDK comes out in Feb if someone releases a software program for the iPod or iPhone, that’s got to be more useable, useful and probably will end up more used then the kindle.

Manufacturing consumer electronics isn’t cheap, and the fact that this was a first for Amazon probably meant they started from scratch, lots of costs. With a price point of 400 USD wonder how many they’ll have to sell to actually be ROI positive. Sure the ebooks will help the bottom line, but if the apple devices have software that reads ebooks surely this would have come down their pipe anyway. Anyway will be interesting to see if we’re all using kindles to surf and read books in a couple of years. But I doubt it.