I’m really enjoying using the Amazon Kindle application on the iPod Touch. I’ve downloaded 3 books and read 1 full book and am halfway through the second. Reading books on an eReader is not something I thought I would really enjoy – at least not as much as I have so far. In the past I argued that books won’t die. I still feel this way, but after seeing a Kindle, and using the Kindle app on the iPod/iPhone and hearing the bee request a Kindle, I’m starting to think this eBook thing might be bigger than I thought.
BUT, we’re really early in the industry today. So, when I see a piece of research claiming that Amazon will “win the eBook war” because they have 90% of eBook market share today it makes me laugh. To me it’s the equivalent of saying that Napster would win the digital music war because 90% of music downloads were done with Napster over 10 years ago. Or that Yahoo! would win the search war, or that Aol would win… whatever it was Aol was trying to do.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Amazon has a great chance at really killing it in the eBook industry, I would never bet against Jeff Bezos. Problem is I would never bet against Apple and Steve Jobs and I would never bet against Google and Eric, Sergey and Larry either. I think all of these companies have a chance to really redefine how books are read digitally.
Lot’s of rumours about an Apple Tablet machine have been circulating with lots of people talking about how they could launch an iTunes for books, like they’ve extended iTunes into movies. This could be pretty compelling. And if Google partners with Sony, Barnes & Noble and others to have a Book finder type tool, that could also be pretty powerful.
I have no idea what will happen with eBooks in the next couple of years and I really doubt that anyone else can truly predict this either.
