Is Google wave overhyped? Maybe. Is it a wash of productivity destruction and the worst of IM and email? Maybe. *Robert Scoble seems to think this about Google Wave and a whole lot worse. But people said the same thing about Facebook, and then joined and spent hours daily on it. They said the same thing of twitter, but it’s growing and more and more people find utility in it as we go on – even if the valuation might seem a bit crazy.
I can see lots of uses for Google Wave (check out Louis Gray’s blog for some screenshots), call centres and help lines especially. The online chat component of a lot of help line sites are crap. Google wave could be a game changer on this, where timing and constant communication or feedback could add significant value. Also live blogging events, media, technology, sports. Imaging having a blogger courtside filling you in live via a wave. Could happen.
The point is, we don’t know jack today about what something will turn out to be like in a few months/years time. I call this Tip Black tech. Taking two well known books/concepts and applying it to technology. The Tipping Point when it comes to user behaviour, network effects and the fact that if enough cool people use something, enjoy using it and tell people about it, more and more people will use it and eventual you may have a tip into real usage and value. And the Black Swan where people believe one thing without really thinking about all the things they don’t know. We thought all swans were white till the black swan was found. So Tip Black tech is about watching who uses technology and what they use it for before declaring it a winner or loser.
With technology you have to give things some time and use before figuring out if there’s value in it. I’m a Libra, so maybe that’s why I find taking an extreme view on a technology or service in the first couple of days – where not everyone has the opportunity to give it a go – annoying.
Give new technology a chance, use it a bit, let others use it a bit and then call it overhyped. Just because a technology may not be for everyone doesn’t mean it won’t offer value to some or many people. So the next time you hear someone call a new tool a killer or a dud, think Tip Black Tech and tell then to wait and see.
