Who is Farhan Lalji?

I like Jeff Jarvis.  I think he’s smart, articulate and he usually has some really interesting things to say around technology, business and journalism.  I used to read Buzzmachine, his blog, quite a bit, but in recent times it’s fallen off my radar a bit.  So when I read his comment piece on the Guardian about advertising, I felt like I was catching up with a good friend.  Until I started to think about what he was saying, and realized that he’s way off on this one.

Jeff, and the good folks at Advertising Age whom he cites, believe that advertising spend will decrease.  They both talk about supply increasing and demand meeting it somewhere with prices paid and spend dropping.  Interesting and totally plausible, but I don’t see the game unfolding like that.  Here’s how I see it.

Targeting will get better and suppliers will be able to reach the right audience in a more targeted manner.  Spend will increase because the supply of targeted ads leads to an increase in the market advertisers can attract to goods and services.  I see spend increasing overall in advertising – especially when you take into account things like social networking and the creation of things like groups and networks, although these might be fiscally free, they have an opportunity cost and a people and time investment.

I don’t see the new advertising model and age being a classic case of supply and demand, I see it more the pie – potential industry earnings – increasing a lot, and as a result spend increasing to try and capture more of that pie.  Sorry Jeff.  But it was nice seeing you again.